ASSESSING SECURITY RISKS FOR PAKISTAN UNDER TALIBAN RULE

Abstract

The return of the Afghan Taliban in 2021 significantly changes the geo-political landscape of the South Asian region. The Taliban's return not only opens new opportunities for the neighbouring countries but also increases the security challenges for the neighbouring countries, especially for Pakistan. The 2025 October skirmishes also highlight the growing trust deficit. This research paper assesses the major security risks for Pakistan under the Afghan Taliban rule.

The security risks are traditional and non-traditional threats that create fear between two states. The potential threats include cross-border terrorism and the rise of Tehreek-e-Taliban-e-Pakistan (TTP). The Taliban's return also inspires many local extremist elements, which will destabilise Pakistan internally. At the same time, the Pak-Afghan historical background can't be ignored as it shapes the recent relations. The number of Afghan migrants seeking refuge in Pakistan has significantly increased since the Taliban took power. Pakistan, regardless, creates a mechanism for the return of Afghan migrants but their presence without documentation always poses a threat to the state.

The economic sector is also directly affected because smuggling through the border is also taking place. All these threats required extraordinarily quick measures. Pakistan is looking towards the maximisation of security on its western border and to maintain relations as Pakistan's relations with the eastern border are not good, while Islamabad does not want to open a new front from the western side. However, the major threats are coming from the western border, which Pakistan is insecure to handle due to the previous close ties with the Taliban.